Alternatively, you lose weight quickly at first because you're not eating carbs (which make you retain water), but over time all that fat catches up with you and you're gaining... My experience with keto-like diets is that they work really well at first, but eventually all that fat catches up to you.
Okay, trying to look at the graph without thinking about what the colours stand for.
There's a first effect during a colour & then a second effect after the colour.
- The line starts of rising slowly. During the first two dark blue sections it goes down fast. After those sections there is a small up and then it slowly goes further down.
- During the light blue section it goes down, although not quite as fast as during dark blue?
Afterwards it either goes up slowly or stays the same, the noise makes it hard to say which.
- Then another dark blue where it drops fast, the second effect cannot be seen because it is followed by a red section. Weight goes up fast during red en then stays roughly the same.
- Another light blue section, during which weight goes down as fast as during the earlier dark blue sections. However, afterwards weight is going up about half as fast, as during the previous red section.
- Then the last red section in which weight keeps rising roughly the same rate, then afterwards it is still rising, although at a slower rate.
So it seems that dark blue has a big first effect and then a smaller second effect. Light blue has a first effect that is somewhere between the first & second effect of dark blue. And no second effect. (Well you could interpret the second light blue as having a second effect of going up, but the going up could also be because of the red part aka light blue can temporarily break through the after effect of red, but only dark blue can stop the after effect of red? Getting more vague here)
So I predict that if you do another light blue; your weight will go down, but after you stop it will start rising slowly again. If you do another dark blue; your weight will go down fast and after you stop it will slowly keep going down for at least two times as long as your dark blue section has lasted.
I largely agree with your reading I think. Note that the two light blue bands are actually different, I should probably make the first one green for clarity. The green one is just keto/no-carbs, the second light blue is ex150ish but with sour cream instead of double cream.
All the blue bits are ketosis inducing, so for each one there's a predictable yet meaningless ~1kg drop and rise at the start and end. (water-bound glycogen loss).
I'm actually about to do another red bit, for reasons, and I'm really interested to see what happens there. Afterwards there will certainly be more blue bits.
I do hope you're right with your dark blue prediction. That would be absolutely fascinating if true. It would mean that there's an important relevant difference between sour cream and double cream. A big clue!
Restaurant Thai curry almost certainly had loads of PUFA, but I agree that it doesn't explain it. Even if you drank a glass of soybean oil, a single event shouldn't have that much of an impact. They probably used 3-5 spoons of seed oils in that curry, but even if you drank the whole thing that should only PUFA you for 2-3 days at most.
My money is on "the lipostat, if it exists, does not work exactly as simply and linearly as we'd like it to." Nobody ever loses weight in a straight, linear line. It usually involves plateaus of months at a time, then sudden whooshes. Even autistic dieters like myself plateau for several weeks at a time on literally the exact, weighed-out-to-the-gram, meal every day.
It could also be that your lipostat hasn't actually changed yet (or doesn't exist) and your entire effortless weight loss and regain since then was caused by something else.
Looking at that chart it seems clear that something went awesome from June 2023 to October 2023 or so. Your thyroid dose and weight both went down slowly but steadily.
Ever since then, absent intervention, your weight has trended up. It looks like your thyroid dose even went up in tandem for a period there, although overall it's more flat.
Another theory: the body did 1 stage of "set pointing" and now needs to recombobulate a few things, and that'll just take a few months. Maybe then you'll be ready for another step change doing the exact same thing.
> Even autistic dieters like myself plateau for several weeks at a time on literally the exact, weighed-out-to-the-gram, meal every day.
Thinking about it, this is a very very interesting observation. I don't have the temperament to do this, but this is perfectly normal for you isn't it? Where on earth is the noise coming from? Why plateaus and whooshes, rather than steady change plus random noise? My intuition says that those two things would look different.
On the other hand, steady change plus a random walk would look like plateaus and whooshes, but what would be causing the random walk if you were eating exactly the same thing every day?
That's what also made sense about the "fat reservoirs filled with water, then flushed" analogy to me. That's what I'd expect to produce such plateaus & whooshes.
If you're eating exactly the same stuff at exactly the same time every day, where is the random-walk type noise coming from? Do you fancy regimenting every glass of water and every sip of cream to the same exact time every day to see what happens?
I guess that measurement noise is likely white.
I feel some simulations coming on to demonstrate what I mean....
I don't think there's much random walk actually. Day to day I'm extremely flat, flatter than most people I've ever seen, just due to the diet's monotony. <1lb day to day is normal, 2lbs difference is kind of an outlier.
Plateaus/whooshes doesn't feel like "random walk" at all to me.
I've actually kind of tried the liquids thing; not measuring my water intake but "dry fasting" in the evening vs. drinking TONS of tea (i'm talking like 8 cups of tea at night). Doesn't make a big difference if any, <1lb. I just pee it out.
The body seems extremely competent at regulating water retention. It's just that there's a "water set point" and mine changes drastically when I eat carbs/protein/salt/fiber, and it comes down nearly as quickly.
I agree so hard with this I think I could have written it! I'm just lost. Once I come back from visiting Mum I'll know more, and then I think I'll have another go at ex150ish and see what happens.
Alternatively, you lose weight quickly at first because you're not eating carbs (which make you retain water), but over time all that fat catches up with you and you're gaining... My experience with keto-like diets is that they work really well at first, but eventually all that fat catches up to you.
I'm eating loads of carbs. Only the blue bits are keto.
Oh well, nvm
I wish bodies reacted more predictably.
It would take all the fun out of it! I *like* reasoning under uncertainty.
Okay, trying to look at the graph without thinking about what the colours stand for.
There's a first effect during a colour & then a second effect after the colour.
- The line starts of rising slowly. During the first two dark blue sections it goes down fast. After those sections there is a small up and then it slowly goes further down.
- During the light blue section it goes down, although not quite as fast as during dark blue?
Afterwards it either goes up slowly or stays the same, the noise makes it hard to say which.
- Then another dark blue where it drops fast, the second effect cannot be seen because it is followed by a red section. Weight goes up fast during red en then stays roughly the same.
- Another light blue section, during which weight goes down as fast as during the earlier dark blue sections. However, afterwards weight is going up about half as fast, as during the previous red section.
- Then the last red section in which weight keeps rising roughly the same rate, then afterwards it is still rising, although at a slower rate.
So it seems that dark blue has a big first effect and then a smaller second effect. Light blue has a first effect that is somewhere between the first & second effect of dark blue. And no second effect. (Well you could interpret the second light blue as having a second effect of going up, but the going up could also be because of the red part aka light blue can temporarily break through the after effect of red, but only dark blue can stop the after effect of red? Getting more vague here)
So I predict that if you do another light blue; your weight will go down, but after you stop it will start rising slowly again. If you do another dark blue; your weight will go down fast and after you stop it will slowly keep going down for at least two times as long as your dark blue section has lasted.
I largely agree with your reading I think. Note that the two light blue bands are actually different, I should probably make the first one green for clarity. The green one is just keto/no-carbs, the second light blue is ex150ish but with sour cream instead of double cream.
All the blue bits are ketosis inducing, so for each one there's a predictable yet meaningless ~1kg drop and rise at the start and end. (water-bound glycogen loss).
I'm actually about to do another red bit, for reasons, and I'm really interested to see what happens there. Afterwards there will certainly be more blue bits.
I do hope you're right with your dark blue prediction. That would be absolutely fascinating if true. It would mean that there's an important relevant difference between sour cream and double cream. A big clue!
Restaurant Thai curry almost certainly had loads of PUFA, but I agree that it doesn't explain it. Even if you drank a glass of soybean oil, a single event shouldn't have that much of an impact. They probably used 3-5 spoons of seed oils in that curry, but even if you drank the whole thing that should only PUFA you for 2-3 days at most.
My money is on "the lipostat, if it exists, does not work exactly as simply and linearly as we'd like it to." Nobody ever loses weight in a straight, linear line. It usually involves plateaus of months at a time, then sudden whooshes. Even autistic dieters like myself plateau for several weeks at a time on literally the exact, weighed-out-to-the-gram, meal every day.
It could also be that your lipostat hasn't actually changed yet (or doesn't exist) and your entire effortless weight loss and regain since then was caused by something else.
Looking at that chart it seems clear that something went awesome from June 2023 to October 2023 or so. Your thyroid dose and weight both went down slowly but steadily.
Ever since then, absent intervention, your weight has trended up. It looks like your thyroid dose even went up in tandem for a period there, although overall it's more flat.
Another theory: the body did 1 stage of "set pointing" and now needs to recombobulate a few things, and that'll just take a few months. Maybe then you'll be ready for another step change doing the exact same thing.
> Even autistic dieters like myself plateau for several weeks at a time on literally the exact, weighed-out-to-the-gram, meal every day.
Thinking about it, this is a very very interesting observation. I don't have the temperament to do this, but this is perfectly normal for you isn't it? Where on earth is the noise coming from? Why plateaus and whooshes, rather than steady change plus random noise? My intuition says that those two things would look different.
On the other hand, steady change plus a random walk would look like plateaus and whooshes, but what would be causing the random walk if you were eating exactly the same thing every day?
That's what also made sense about the "fat reservoirs filled with water, then flushed" analogy to me. That's what I'd expect to produce such plateaus & whooshes.
If you're eating exactly the same stuff at exactly the same time every day, where is the random-walk type noise coming from? Do you fancy regimenting every glass of water and every sip of cream to the same exact time every day to see what happens?
I guess that measurement noise is likely white.
I feel some simulations coming on to demonstrate what I mean....
I don't think there's much random walk actually. Day to day I'm extremely flat, flatter than most people I've ever seen, just due to the diet's monotony. <1lb day to day is normal, 2lbs difference is kind of an outlier.
Plateaus/whooshes doesn't feel like "random walk" at all to me.
I've actually kind of tried the liquids thing; not measuring my water intake but "dry fasting" in the evening vs. drinking TONS of tea (i'm talking like 8 cups of tea at night). Doesn't make a big difference if any, <1lb. I just pee it out.
The body seems extremely competent at regulating water retention. It's just that there's a "water set point" and mine changes drastically when I eat carbs/protein/salt/fiber, and it comes down nearly as quickly.
I agree so hard with this I think I could have written it! I'm just lost. Once I come back from visiting Mum I'll know more, and then I think I'll have another go at ex150ish and see what happens.