Accidental Lipostat Test: More Confusion

What is Signal and What is Noise?

10/02/24 95.8 36.73 0 1

09/02/24 96.6 36.59 0 1

08/02/24 95.3 36.6 1 1

07/02/24 95.1 36.5 0 1

06/02/24 95.6 36.58 1 1

05/02/24 95.7 36.59 0 1

04/02/24 95.6 36.64 0 1

03/02/24 95.4 36.54 0 1

02/02/24 96 36.63 1 1

Two days ago I was convinced that my weight is now back under homeostatic control.

From its high point of 96.7 kilos it seemed to have tracked smoothly back down to around 95.5, and to still be heading south. A loss of about 1/2kg over two weeks of doing nothing except eating 'ad-lib high-protein swamp'.

That's exactly what I'd been expecting to happen. A certain amount of dissolute behaviour had managed to raise my weight above its current equilibrium level, and then going back to being in control of my own food supply and just eating if and only if I'm hungry was returning it to its set point, which seems to be around 95kg these days.

There's always noise but the trend was clear. A seven-day average of 95.5 and falling.

In fact my weight seemed to be dropping so quickly that I figured I'd better wait for it to actually stabilize before trying my planned next bout of ex150ish, so as not to confuse weight drop that was going to happen anyway with any potential weight loss that ex150ish might cause.

That was how my body used to work. How I believe that human bodies, how I believe that all animals in their natural state are supposed to work.

Temporary events like dieting, exercising, overeating and undereating can knock you away from your equilibrium level, but as soon as you stop forcing the issue your body just returns to its preferred level of fat reserves.

I had a blog post planned about this, but I was too busy to write it so I put if off for a bit.

And then yesterday, for no apparent reason, there was this huge spike to 96.6 . I can't believe that I added more than a kilo of fat in one day (7700 extra kilocalories without noticing!), but now when I look at my graph I'm seeing an overall upward trend, much more like u/exfatloss's prediction of 'continuous weight gain' than mine of 'slow return to 95kg'.

Which of these things is true seems very important.

So again, I'm going to hold off on deciding what is happening and wait for more readings.